FINALS FEVER!!!

17 teams, 7 months , 189 days, 1610 tries, 1394 goals and 9272 points later and we are here! Finals time

This year has been on of the closet seasons in recent record, we have seen upsets galore and so many games decided by 2 points or less. In fact a whopping 15% of games this year have been decided by 2 points or less, that is up 3% on last year when 12% of games where decided by 2 points or less and that is with additional games in the calendar as well.

More to excitedly there have been less blow outs, yes we have seen some big scores this year(74-0 anyone? eep!!!) however, this year we have seen 28% of games that have blown out and been decided by 20 points or more compare that to last year when we had a whopping 37% of regular season games which where decided by 20 points or more.

If I recall correctly there were even so called experts claiming that there wasn’t enough talent in Australia to support 17 or 18 teams, and some even called for the NRL to drop to 16 or even 12 teams!! LUDUCRIS!!!! We can obviously see how often those experts get around to the local rugby league venues to see the untapped, uncapped, game passionate potential running around every weekend.

Anyway I digress…….. The ladder after the regular seasons paints the picture, only 10 points separating 1st and 8th, you know what that means, a CRACKER OF A FINALS

Game 1 of the 2023 Finals sees the 2nd place Broncos take on the 3rd place Melbourne Storm and what a blockbuster it will be.

In a rinse and repeat of last weeks game at Suncorp Stadium, but oh what a difference a week makes and oh what a different game it will be. Both teams are back to full strength this week after last week saw over $5 Million worth of talent rested between the two teams.

The Broncos are out to gain some honor back as they look to break a 14 year hoodoo against Melbourne in Brisbane, and let’s not forget this the first finals game Brisbane have played since that dark day in 2019 when Parramatta wiped them out 58-0 starting a dreadful run that involved a wooden spoon for Brisbane. I’m sure as it would for any team the scars still remain, however this is a different Broncos team with just Carrigan, Haas, Flegler and Staggs the remaining members of that team ( and Oates but he is not playing) not to mention they have added premiership winning expertise Reynolds and Capewell, the electricity of Reece Walsh, and a new coach to boot.

Melbourne on the other hand are a picture of consistency as always. They have locked in their 8th top 4 finish in the last 10 years. Yes you read that right, the have finished outside the top 4 just twice in the last 10 years. They are also coming in on a hot streak winning there last 4 games of the season by an average margin of 21.7 points. Grant, Munster, and Hughes are all firing at the right time and the inclusion of Papenhuyzen makes for a frightening prospect.

THE VERDICT:

Both teams have been ultra consistent this year, with just 2 losses separating them. In there last 5 games Brisbane have scored an average 33.4 points and conceded 16.8 points, while Melbourne have scored 32.2 points and conceded 18.8, with both teams 4-1 from their last 5 games. However the Broncos are a different team this year and based on the years efforts and in front of 50,000 I have the Broncos in front.

BRONCOS TO WIN

Match Number 2 sees us head to Bluebet Stadium for a Saturday afternoon special. Master v Apprentice, David vs Goliath and a foregone conclusion??????

The Penrith Panthers have ben ultra consistent again in 2023 claiming a 3rd straight minor premiership. Many had written them off this year, however it seems No Api, No Kikau, No worries for the Panthers! They have faced a lot this year with injuries at various times to Cleary, Luai, Edwards, Martin and Fisher Harris, plus as always an Origin exodus, yet they still managed to come through with their next man up mentality. Penrith come in with a 4-1 record from their last 5 games, however question marks remain did Parramatta show the rest of the league how to beat the Panthers? Have they given the blueprint to breaking a Dynasty?

The Warriors on the other hand are we witnessing the rise of new Dynasty? With an average squad age of 26 years old they are ripe for the picking. A new coach has bought new ideas and has rolled back the clock on veterans Shaun Johnson and Addin Fonua-Blake who have both proved invaluable leaders this year. Like Penrith they come into the finals off the back of a 4-1 record with a last start loss to the Dolphins when resting players their only blemish since round 18. This seasons Warriors have just found a will to win with 7 games won by 8 or less points. However with a Injury cloud over Johnson and a 45% win rate against fellow top 8 teams this year is it a bridge too far?

THE VERDICT

Every week one finals produces an upset and I’m going to make a big call and claim this is it! A lot has to go the way of the Warriors, however with a mobile, physical pack to match the Panthers, the passion of a nation deprived of their team for 3 years and a IF Johnson plays I sense they have the smarts to make it happen.

WARRIORS TO WIN

Sharks vs Roosters will cap off Saturday night football at Pointsbet Stadium. Both teams have had anything but spectacular seasons. With all due respect I am not expecting either team to set the world on fire this finals series.

The perennial Bridemaids the Sharks (in the finals but not the big dance once again), can they put the scars of last year to the side and the top 8 hoodoo and pull of a win in the 1st elimination final? It is no secret of the Sharks struggles against fellow top 8 teams the last 2 years and this season is no different. In 10 games this season against fellow top 8 teams they have won just 3, losing by a combined score of 258 – 162. Including losses by 54-10 vs Melbourne, 44-12 vs Warriors, 32-6 vs Knights and 28-0 vs Penrith. They have however beaten the Roosters in the one match they have played in 2023. Will it be enough though?

On the other hand the Roosters have seen a resurgence impressive enough the turn the doubters. They have not just broken down the door to the finals they have bashed it in off the back of a 5-0 run into the finals. Yes they had an favorable run with games against the Rabbitohs, Tigers, Dolphins, Sea Eagles and Parramatta (all teams outside the 8) but take nothing away, they won these games well. Tedesco is looking back to his best and Sam Walker has new found confidence since returning to first grade while Suaalii is proving dynamic since returning to the wing. Trent Robinson knows how to get a team up for the finals and I feel may have a sneaky ace up his sleeve.

THE VERDICT

This is probably the toughest of week 1 to predict. However I will have to go with the Sharks on this one. The Roosters are on a run however given the last few times they were really challenged they came up short losing to the Broncos and Storm respectively. While the Sharks have shown enough to get through week one and with this being Club Champion Wade Grahams last home game I think they will be up for the occasion.

SHARKS TO WIN

In this humble Arm Chair Commentators opinion this is the game of the round, and one I am most excited for. We round out the finals with cracker at McDonald Jones Stadium.

Every supporter who has a team outside the eight has the Knights as their Smokey to win the comp! Not since the Jarryd Hayne lead Eels side of 2009 have we seen a team with such an impressive run to the finals. 8 weeks ago this team was cooked and no one gave them a chance, enter Kalyn Ponga. Kalyn has been electric the last 2 months and almost single handedly carried this team on his back. Make no mistake for the Knights to be successful this series they NEED PONGA TO STAY FIT.

The Raiders on the other hand have gone the other way. Impressive mid season after a slow start to the year, winning 10 out of 12 games between rounds 6 and 19, with everyone elevating to potential grand finalists and it looked like ol Grumpy Ricky had done it again. Unfortunately the back end of the season has not been as impressive winning just 2 from their last 7 games with the bye in round 20 seemingly halting all momentum. If the Raiders are to fire a shot they will need all their big guns firing on all cylinders to send Wighton and Croker out a winner

THE VERDICT

Did the emotion of the Jack Wighton decision become too much of circus to overcome? As much as we would love to see Wighton and Croker go out winners this year, I think it is a bridge too big to climb and this is where their season 2023 ends. Kalyn and the Knights with a parochial Novocastrian crowd behind them, in the form that they are in a specials to win, and win in a canter.

KNIGHTS TO WIN

It is set to be a big series and one where I truly believe anything could happen. Who will take out the series? Will the Panthers go back to back to back? Can the Broncos knock them off their perch? Will the Knights pull off a run from outside the top 4? Or will something completely unpredictable knock all our socks off? I have no idea, but let me tell you I’m excited to find out 😉

Now remember these are just the amateur, raw opinions of an Aussie Armchair Commentator.  Until next time readers.

AAC